Disney-Marvel’s Thunderbolts is expected to make between $70 million and $75 million in its opening weekend at the domestic box office, starting the 2025 summer movie season.
This estimate, shared by Deadline on Friday, matches the predictions made by both Deadline and Variety earlier this week.
The good news is that if the estimate is accurate, it falls within the expected range from The Hollywood Reporter’s April 10 tracking, which predicted an opening between $63 million and $77 million in North American theaters.
The bad news is that this estimate is lower than Box Office Pro’s prediction from Wednesday, which expected an opening of $80 million to $90 million for Thunderbolts.
The film will be shown in 4,330 theaters across North America.
For comparison, Disney’s previous MCU movie, Captain America: Brave New World, made $88.5 million over its opening weekend from 4,105 theaters in mid-February. Thanks to Presidents’ Day weekend, the movie earned an extra $11.5 million on Monday, bringing its total to $100 million over four days.
Most studios would be happy with a $70 million opening for Thunderbolts*, but Disney spent $180 million on production and $100 million on marketing, so the movie still needs to make more money to be profitable.
This weekend, Thunderbolts* is now the No. 1 film in North America, replacing the vampire movie Sinners after two weeks at the top.
Disney can also be happy because two movies, Warner Bros.’ A Minecraft Movie and Sinners, both did better than expected in their opening weekends and second weekends in April.
With good reviews — an 88% rating from critics and a 95% rating from audiences on Rotten Tomatoes — it’s possible that Thunderbolts* could also do better than expected at the box office.
Thunderbolts* is different from other MCU movies because it focuses on a group of antiheroes instead of superheroes, including Yelena Belova (Florence Pugh), Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan), Red Guardian (David Harbour), Ghost (Hannah John-Kamen), Taskmaster (Olga Kurylenko), and John Walker (Wyatt Russell).
The movie Sinners, directed by Ryan Coogler, made $48 million in its first weekend and $45.7 million in its second weekend. This weekend, it’s expected to make between $30 million and $35 million from 3,347 theaters in North America, taking the No. 2 spot at the box office.
If these numbers are correct, Sinners will have earned between $176.6 million and $181.6 million in total so far. The Minecraft Movie is expected to make $13 million from 3,571 theaters, bringing its total to $397.5 million.
The movie The Accountant 2, from Amazon MGM Studios, is expected to make $11.2 million this weekend from 3,610 theaters, bringing its 10-day total to $41.6 million. Until Dawn from Sony Pictures Entertainment is expected to earn $3 million from 3,055 theaters, which would bring its total to $13.8 million.
This box office report will be updated throughout the weekend with the latest numbers, and the final numbers will be released on Monday.
Published: 3rd May 2025
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